December 5, 2006

18 Electoral Votes

If the Democratic Party holds the 252 electoral votes John Kerry won in 2004, they only need 18 more to win the Presidency. Tom Schaller over at TAPPED gives us five ways the Demcratic Party can get the 18 eletoral votes they need.
1. Single-shot Florida. Less competitive in 2004 (Bush by 5 points) than during the Year of the Recount, the 27 electors from this least southern of the southern states will be on any Democratic nominee's target list. But she's no lock to win the Sunshine State.

2. Single-shot Ohio. The 2006 midterms revealed Ohio to be trending blue, and with Secretary of State Ken Blackwell out of the way it will be easier to put Ohio's 20 electors into the Democratic column, with two electors to spare. This would be my recommended route.

3. Flip three of the four southwestern states. If John McCain's on the ticket, Jesus couldn't win Arizona for the Democrats. But even without Arizona, Colorado (9), Nevada (5), and New Mexico (5) offer 19 electors and a total of 271 -- exactly the number Bush used to squeeze into White House in 2000.

4 and 5. Flip either of two pairs from the four 36th Parallel states. The 36th parallel forms the southern borders of Kentucky, Missouri, and Virginia, with West Virginia's southernmost portion tucked just above. Kentucky (8) and Missouri (11) duplicate the non-Arizona southwestern trio's 19 electors, and the Virginias combine for another 18 -- the bare minimum needed.
The Republican Party never won the White House without winning the state of Ohio. If John Kerry would have picked up few thousands more votes in Ohio he would be our President right now. The state it tending Blue. Ohio just elected Democrat to the State House and sent one of the most liberal members of the House to the Senate. The easiest way for the Democratic Party to reach 270 electoral votes is winning Ohio.

Early prediction: Dems hold all the blue states (252), pick up Ohio (20) and New Mexico(5). Dems win the White House!


At December 06, 2006 1:18 PM, Blogger Eloy said...

This is just a starting point. It's very early to start predicting what is going to happen in 2008. I do not propose for the Democratic Party to lay all of there eggs in one basket, called Ohio. I just state that the easist way to the White House, if they keep all of the Blue state Kerry won in '04 is carring Ohio in 2008. I'm all for the 50 state campaign and expanding the field of play.


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